Jesus Really Was Born on Dec 25, In All Liklihood...

This article breaks it down...

http://www.catholicherald.com/stories/Was-Jesus-really-born-Dec-25,24876


However, there is a case to be made for another date... historical/astronomical/astrological evidence... ("astrology" not in the modern sense of fortune-telling, but in the sense of noting stars/planets and interpreting the positions in the context of Scriptural prophesies regarding coming events)...

http://www.bethlehemstar.net/